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In conjunction with Landman Economics, we've just completed a major piece of work for the Welsh Assembly Government on modelling the finance of social care.
This is the most technically sophisticated model we've ever been involved in; indeed, we believe it to be one of the most complex microsimulation projects ever undertaken anywhere in the world. It uses British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data to model demand for social care under many possible financing systems for up to 20 years. The projects are made either by ageing the households - increasing the ages of household members and applying estimated probabilities of major events such as retirement, worsening of health and eventually death, or by selectively reweighing the households to match population projections.
The model has an elegant user interface allowing Welsh Government officials to make and analyse their own simulations.
- Client: Welsh Assembly
- Technologies:
- Ada, including Mill database modeller and Ada Web Server
- Java
- Postgres Relational Database
- Stata statistical system
- Ruby and Python scripting languages
- The source code is downloadable from Git Hub
- Technical Documentation
Below is a gallery of screenshots of the model in action.
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A presentation on the model (June 2014): PDF | Open Document | Powerpoint |
Presentation at Fosdem 2015: PDF | Open Document